Terms and conditions

The project

The Flu Forecast Game is a research project run by Rafael Frongillo and Bo Waggoner and supported by Gensyn, Inc. (“Gensyn”). Taking part is free. By participating, you agree to these terms.

Points have no value

Points are test tokens (GFLU) on Gensyn Testnet. They have no monetary value, and they cannot be bought, sold, exchanged or withdrawn. Prizes are separate from points, and are paid by Gensyn in US dollars or USDC.

Prizes and eligibility

There are two prize rounds, and each pays the top five eligible players $1,000, $800, $600, $400 and $200. The fall round covers the weeks ending Oct 31 through Dec 12, 2026; its last week is scored around Jan 15, 2027. The full-season round covers every week ending Oct 31, 2026 through Apr 3, 2027, the fall round's weeks included; its last week is scored around May 7, 2027. Each round ranks players by their score (as on How it works: what their predictions paid back, minus the points they committed, plus their weekly points), counting only that round's weeks, once the last of them is scored. Players tied on score share a place and split the prizes of the places they take.
One account per person. Each account is one person's own sign-in; teams take part through one account.
Employees and contractors of Gensyn, and the project's investigators, can take part but are not eligible for prizes.
Prizes are paid only after an integrity review of the top standings, identity verification and sanctions screening. We’ll email winners at their account address within 30 days after a round’s last week is scored. To be paid, you’ll need to complete verification, tell us where to send the prize (a bank account or a wallet address), and give us any tax form we ask for (for example a W-9 or W-8). If you don’t do this within 30 days of our email, the prize is forfeited. We choose whether to pay in US dollars or USDC, and you’re responsible for any taxes on your prize. To win a prize you must be 18 or older, and not located in a country or region where taking part, or receiving the prize, is prohibited by law or sanctions.

Fair play

No multiple accounts. Creating or controlling more than one account, including to collect extra weekly points, is grounds for disqualification.
No collusion. Coordinating predictions with other participants to benefit any of them is grounds for disqualification.
No trading against yourself, and no deliberately moving forecasts to mislead others.
Uploading forecasts from your own model, by hand or by script, is welcome.
If you find a bug that affects scoring, report it to us rather than using it.
Every prediction is public and recorded on chain. We review the top standings before paying prizes, and our decisions on eligibility are final.

Scoring

Each week is scored on NHSN's count as described on How it works. If a week's count cannot be obtained or verified, that week may be canceled: the points committed to it are returned, and it counts zero for everyone.

Research use and privacy

The community forecast and individual predictions are public, and we will analyze and publish them for research, in aggregate or under display names and short wallet addresses. We do not sell personal data. Your sign-in details are handled by Privy and are not shown publicly. If you win a prize, the details we collect to verify and pay you are used only for that and kept only as long as we need them for legal and tax records. Gensyn is responsible for personal data collected here; see the Gensyn privacy policy: https://www.gensyn.ai/privacy-policy. Predictions are recorded on a public blockchain and can’t be deleted.

By taking part, you agree that your predictions and activity on the site may be used in this research and published as described here. Your email address is never published.

Changes

We may change the rules, timing, or markets if needed to run the project fairly, and will announce any change on the site. We may also update these terms; if you keep taking part after a change, you accept it. If we have to end a prize round early, we’ll say so on the site and award that round’s prizes on the weeks scored so far. Nothing on this site is medical or financial advice, and the project is not affiliated with or endorsed by the CDC or NHSN. The service is provided as is and may change or end. To the extent the law allows, Gensyn and the investigators are not liable for any loss arising from the game or the site, beyond paying the prizes described here. These terms are governed by Delaware law, and any dispute will be heard in the state or federal courts in New York, New York.

Contact

Questions and reports: [email protected].